Top military commanders tell PM during Afghan visit that stability of country and UK security is at risk if presence not maintained
David Cameron has been warned by senior military commanders that Britain will risk the stability of Afghanistan and the UK if the government withdraws troops too quickly.
As the prime minister visited troops in Helmand province amid tight security, a senior military source warned that Britain must maintain a strong presence for another two years if it wants Afghanistan to remain a viable country.
British military commanders, who are handing over security powers to Afghan forces ahead of the ending of Nato combat operations in December 2014, were alarmed by a report of a dramatic escalation of withdrawals next year. Cameron all but confirmed a report in the Sun that Oliver Letwin, who chairs a new armed forces cabinet sub-committee, had said that Britain could save £3bn if all combat troops were withdrawn by 2013, rather than by 2014. Letwin's suggestion was reportedly backed by George Osborne.
"I am not going to comment on debates we have in the National Security Council," Cameron said during a visit to Camp Bastion. "But it is important we have these debates, that is what the NSC is for.
"There is not going to be an immediate withdrawal, nor is there going to be a cliff edge in 2014. What this is is a process," Cameron said. He confirmed that in December the government will announce how many troops will be withdrawn next year. Ministers have agreed to withdraw 500 troops this year, leaving 9,000 in Afghanistan.
But a senior military source expressed concerns about the dangers of a rapid withdrawal. The source said: "If the prime minister's aims don't change – and that is to maintain a viable state with ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] that can protect its borders and counter-terrorism – then we need to maintain a strong presence. We are planning a glide down path."
The signs of differences between Cameron and the military emerged as he spent the day at Camp Bastion, the main British military base in Helmand province. A strict blackout on the trip was partially broken when Hamid Karzai, the president of Afghanistan, announced on Tuesday that Cameron would be visiting his country. Cameron flew into Camp Bastion, the main British base in Helmand Province, after an overnight flight on an RAF C17 Globemaster military transporter from Britain.
Cameron held talks at Camp Bastion with Lieutenant General Adrian Bradshaw, the commander of British forces in Afghanistan. He also spoke to troops at a forward operating base to the south.
It is understood that military commanders passed on their concerns about an overly rapid withdrawal which undermine the delicate process of handing responsibility for security to Afghan forces to Cameron. Some warned that the wrong timetable could pose a threat to Britain by strengthening the hands of insurgents.
Cameron denied that troop withdrawals were driven by budget cuts. "This is about having a process that supports ordinary transition in Afghanistan but delivers for us the pledge of saying we won't have troops in combat, or large numbers of troops here, after 2014. That is important because the British people and the British armed forces deserve a sort of end date by which this will have completed. It is important for the Afghans to know that there is a process at the end of which they have to stand more on their own two feet. It takes a weapon away from the Taliban – Afghans don't want foreign forces on their soil for the long term.
"Obviously there is a benefit if we have fewer troops here. It costs less money. But this is not about money. This is about what is right for Afghanistan and our forces."
Cameron said he was confident that Britain remains on track to withdraw all combat troops by 2014 because the process of handing control to Afghan forces is successfully underway.
The prime minister said: "There is a balance between staying on and supporting and pushing them forward to do more work themselves and getting the timelines right between now and 2014. I am convinced it is is doable, it is deliverable. It needs careful, patient work to get it right."
The prime minister makes a point of visiting British troops stationed in Helmand Province at least twice a year, usually just after parliament rises for the summer and Christmas recesses. Morale among some troops is said to be low after they returned home from Helmand only to discover they were needed for Olympics duties. None of the troops seen by the prime minister in Afghanistan is likely to be called up for the Olympics.
All areas under British control since troops were deployed to Helmand in 2006 are in, or are about to be, in transition to Afghan control. In May this year Hamid Karzai announced the third "tranche" of transition which will include the Helmand district of Nahri Sarraj. Nato forces started to hand over security to Afghan forces in Lashkar Gah in July last year in the first tranche. The second tranche began in Nad Ali last November.
The threat to British troops, often from Afghan forces, was highlighted earlier this month when three British soldiers were killed by an Afghan policeman in a "green on blue" attack at the Kamparack Pul compound in Helmand.
The prime minister will tread carefully on negotiating with the Taliban. Britain's official position is that talks can only open with the Taliban if it renounces violence and signs up to Hamid Karzai's political process.
Unofficially Britain's position was recently commented on by David Miliband, the former foreign secretary, who spoke of the "need for and difficulties in" embarking on "serious discussion with the Taliban about the future of Afghanistan". Miliband remarks were made in a special edition of the New Statesman guest edited by him. This included after an interview with one of the Taliban's most senior commanders by the former UN envoy Michael Semple.
The Taliban commander told Semple the insurgents acknowledged the need to seek a settlement in Afghanistan because they cannot win a war and capturing Kabul remains a "very distant prospect". The commander was dismissive of Karzai and said the only forces of consequence in Afghanistan were the Americans and the Northern Alliance.
The Taliban sent representatives earlier this year to Qatar as a first step towards negotiations with the US. But the talks stalled amid annoyance from Karzai that he had been excluded.
Cameron has had a mixed experience on visits to Afghanistan. A visit to Camp Bastion last December had to be aborted when a sandstorm forced his plane to divert to Kandahar. In July 2010 the prime minister had to abort a visit to a forward operation base in southern Helmand had to be cancelled after the military intercepted intelligence which suggested that the Taliban were planning to attack a high profile visitor. This led to a review of the arrangements from the prime minister's visits to Afghanistan.