Syria has seen influx of foreign fighters, but regime has been spinning terror line since last March to help justify state violence
Bashar al-Assad claimed from the start of the Syrian uprising last March that his enemies were "armed terrorist gangs" rather than largely peaceful demonstrators calling for reform and then for the overthrow of his regime.
In the war of the "narratives" Damascus fashioned a version that emphasised opposition violence even as government troops and thugs were shooting without restraint at mostly unarmed protestors.
Assad's enemies did gradually take up arms, but the majority were defectors or those who joined the Free Syrian Army as a self-defence force. Atrocities like the brutal killings of soldiers in Jisr al-Shughour were an exception.
Little is certain in the murky world of terrorism. But the US believed that the bombings of two Damascus security installations in December were carried out by an al-Qaida type group using military explosives and methods perfected in Iraq.
Opposition figures and many ordinary Syrians believe that those and similar incidents were faked by the regime to scapegoat and radicalise its enemies. Similar disagreements apply to the Damascus bombings of 10 May that killed 55 and injured nearly 400.
Assad needs terrorist enemies allegedly supported by foreign powers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel and Turkey because they suit the sense of legitimacy and secular Arab nationalism he wishes to project – and help justify state repression.
"This fits neatly with the regime's attempt to ensure the loyalty of urban Sunnis and minorities fearful of Islamist rule by portraying all opposition as radical, violent and foreign-inspired," commented Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Assad's security services could have staged attacks given their sponsorship of jihadi outfits operating in Lebanon and Iraq. Aware of the number of foreign fighters who have entered the country, Syrian mukhabarat agents might be masquerading as jihadis to recruit genuine ones who are sent on missions that target civilians. "Not only would this legitimate the regime's reign of terror, it provides justification for its insistence that the west, along with Arab governments and Turkey, does not supply weapons to the rebels," argued experts Aaron Zelin and Andrew Tabler.
More likely, says Hokayem, is that Sunni jihadi outfits, backed by Syria in Iraq but which never had much in common with the Alawite Assad beyond an anti-US agenda, "have simply turned against their former patron".
Jihadi-type groups do seem to be operating in Syria. Al-Qaida's leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has urged all good Muslims to fight Assad's "pernicious, cancerous regime". Several Tunisians were recently killed in Syria and Islamist fighters from Libya have made their way to the Idlib area via Turkey. Others have entered the country from Lebanon and Iraq but most likely in small numbers.
Still, the strong suspicion is that Assad is deliberately exaggerating the point for political and propaganda purposes. "The Syrians have tried to make a big thing recently about the influx of foreign fighters," said one western diplomat. "But the majority of serious security problems are still homegrown."