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Republican Cotton has a good chance to knock out the Democratic incumbent in this rapidly reddening state
Republican representative Tom Cotton has announced that he will challenge Democratic incumbent senator Mark Pryor in Arkansas' 2014 senatorial election. Republicans almost certainly need to win the seat if they are to win the six seats necessary to regain control of the United States Senate.
Here are five reasons why I believe that Cotton is in a good position to take Pryor down.
1. Cotton is yet another solid Republican challenger
I don't remember who originally said it, but college football and senate challenges are about one thing above all: recruiting. We've seen many Republican candidates lose "winnable races" over the past three years because they said something stupid. Whether it be Todd Akin and rape comments, Richard Mourdock and rape comments, Ken Buck and rape victims, or Sue Lowden and exchanging chickens for health insurance, Republican candidates have sounded like inconsiderate morons.
Cotton follows a long list of 2014 Republican senate candidates who are unlikely to repeat the same errors. He's a Harvard College and law educated former military captain. Cotton's well spoken and has deep roots in Arkansas. Prior to becoming a lawyer, he worked on the family farm. It doesn't hurt that Cotton represents the southern part of the state, which is traditionally a swing region. Put another way, Cotton fits Arkansas well and isn't likely to scare anyone.
2. Arkansas is a Republican state
The best way to judge a state's political lean is to look at the prior presidential vote and compare it to the rest of the country. Over the past two cycles, Arkansas averaged 14pt to the right of the country at large. That puts it on the same level as Alabama and more Republican than any other southern state, including Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.
Some might want to argue that there's more to a state's partisan slant than the presidential vote, but the story for other offices is the same. The other Democratic United States senator from Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln, lost by 21pt in 2010. Republicans represent all of the state's districts in the House of Representatives. Republicans control a majority in both the state House and Senate.
3. Pryor's previous runs occurred under a much more Democratic Arkansas
When Pryor first won his Senate seat in 2002, Arkansas was only 3pt more Republican than the nation in the nearest two presidential elections. This meant that instead of Arkansas being the most Republican southern state as it is today on the presidential level, it was the most Democratic southern state.
Other data sends the same signal. At the time of his 2008 reelection bid, Democrats controlled 75% of the Arkansas House of Representatives and 77% of the state Senate; now it's only 48% and 40%, respectively. Three of the four Arkansas members of the House of Representatives were Democrats in 2008, while it is 0 today.
The state's quick uniform swing is because of its homogenous nature. As Sean Trende outlined on Tuesday, the Democratic south became the Republican south quickest in states where Republicans had a division (racial, urban versus rural, etc) to exploit. Arkansas held out the longest because the state looks very similar everywhere.
The problem for Democrats is once one part of the state changed, the homogeny of the state ensured rapid switches in all of it. In the case of Arkansas, the pivotal change was the Greatest Generation dying off. Democrat John Kerry won the 65+ year-old vote by 8pt in 2004, while losing the state overall by 10pt. Most of the Greatest Generation are gone now and with them a Democratic Arkansas.
4. The state's demographics are awful for Pryor
Democrats have been winning nationwide on the backs of minorities, well educated whites, and young voters. Perhaps if Arkansas had a lot of one of those, then Pryor might be able to reverse Republican gains in the state. The problem is that Arkansas doesn't.
In the last midterm election, whites were 77% of the vote nationwide. Whites made up 83% of the vote in Arkansas. Whites with a college degree were 42% of the nationwide electorate. Whites with a college degree were only 34% of the vote in Arkansas. And while 18-29 year-olds made up 12% of the vote nationwide, they were only 8% of the electorate in Arkansas.
The single biggest portion of the electorate were whites without a college degree at 49%. Obama's approval among them was only 26% in the latest Pew survey. Arkansas, as opposed to Louisiana, which has a sizable black population, is the one place where a vulnerable 2004 deep southern senator benefits zilch from the Obama coalition.
5. Pryor's in no better shape than Lincoln was at this point in 2010
Averaging out the most recent polls, Pryor has a +5.5pt net favorable rating, and well under 50% on overall favorability. He's ahead of Cotton in a one-on-one by only 2.3pt. Neither are very good for an incumbent considering that 40%-50% of voters have no clue who Cotton is, and those that do hold a favorable opinion of him. One would expect Cotton's numbers to climb as people get to know him.
Pryor, meanwhile, is fighting against the wind. Blanche Lincoln had a +9pt favorable rating at this point in the 2010 cycle. She was barely leading or trailing possible opponents in surveys by late August 2009. She even led Cotton in a potential matchup by 1pt in one poll. Lincoln's numbers had begun to slide even before her vote for Obamacare.
Conclusion:
The reason Lincoln's numbers slid is simple: the fundamentals of Arkansas favor the Republican candidate. The state has moved considerably to the right over the past decade. It's no longer the one Mark Pryor won 11 years ago – or his father before that.
The question is whether Cotton fumbles the football. So long as Cotton stays on message, the race leans in his direction. If Pryor holds on, he's done a heck of a job. Democrats will also almost certainly hold onto control of the United States senate.
Still, I'd bet against it. Pryor's polling right now is barely good enough for an incumbent to win, though it's likely a high water mark. He probably won't lose by 20pt+ like Lincoln, but I expect the Republican shade of red to make its appearance known over time in the Razorback state.
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