Letta's Democratic party faces the unenviable choice of voting to expel Berlusconi or keeping him in and falling apart
Silvio Berlusconi did not look or sound like a beaten man. His conviction for fraud may have been upheld by the supreme court, delivering a definitive conviction for the first time in his long career. But his video message – defused on one of his TV channels – was more election manifesto than denunciation, and the firebreathing reaction of his party left the fragile coalition of which it is an indispensable part in no doubt that, as his family newspaper screamed, "Berlusconi is not finished". Just three months after he took office, the centre-left prime minister, Enrico Letta, acknowledged the political situation was now "very delicate", although he clearly hinted that he was not prepared to continue "at any cost".
That may well be determined by his own party as much as by the reaction of Berlusconi's People of Freedom party (PdL). But there is a definitive sense that the clock is ticking and a denouement to the endless soap opera is coming. An anti-corruption law passed last year by Mario Monti's government, which everyone, in their excitement at the ruling, seemed to have forgotten, means that Berlusconi will not be allowed to stand for election for at least six years. It also means that the Italian senate will have to vote on whether to expel him as senator with immediate effect.
This goes to the heart of the most explosive part of the sentence, which the supreme court judges tried to avoid by deferring the length of his ban from public office to another court. It does not mean that Berlusconi could not continue to lead his party from his villa, where he could serve the one year remaining of his sentence under house arrest. Another convicted criminal, Beppo Grillo (he was done for manslaughter for a car accident in which three passengers died), leads a party from without. But it does mean that a vote will now have to be taken. The explosion is coming and it will most likely happen in September.
Letta's Democratic party is faced with the unenviable choice of voting to expel Berlusconi and possibly dooming its own government, or voting to keep Berlusconi in and tearing itself apart. What it cannot do is to seek an alternative coalition partner. It tried to court Grillo, and the effort to form a coalition without Berlusconi cost it almost two months and a change of leader. Continuing to sup with the devil will cost it votes and boost Grillo's anti-establishment populist rhetoric. It is very hard to tell whether Letta's government can survive, but it is equally hard to see how things can continue as they are. Berlusconi is determined to continue, and there is speculation that his daughter may carry on the brand name. The tragedy is, he may well succeed, a free man or not.
