The PM has positioned himself as the candidate prepared to go to war not just against Tony Abbott but against his own party
Kevin Rudd was out early on Wednesday attempting to frame the debate for when, as seemed inevitable, the Independent Commission Against Corruption recommended criminal charges against Labor powerbrokers in NSW.
Rudd's "zero tolerance" for corruption, and his "disgust" for the tawdry shenanigans in NSW, were in the news cycle before the Icac recommendations – a deliberate bit of media management. He got his line up before the report was released, avoiding the prospect of being bombarded by any detailed questions.
The prime minister has done everything he possibly can to make sure federal Labor washes up on the right side of this ugly imbroglio, which is rearing its head, inconveniently, just before a federal election.
Rudd has positioned himself as the candidate prepared to go to war not just against Tony Abbott but against his own political party. He may have used the institutional structures within Labor to take the federal party leadership, with power structures in NSW consequential to his success on both occasions, but Rudd has never been a party man in the way Julia Gillard was a party woman.
Rudd always appeals directly to the people, presidential style, not to the powerbrokers. His deep aversion for Labor's internecine internal custom and practice is genuine – he's always felt alienated by it, and sought to position himself above it – an act of defiance that explains some of the deep aversion some of his Labor colleagues feel towards him, a "stranger" in their midst.
Voters seem to understand that distinction, and reward Rudd for it – even if it's not quite as simple or clear cut as it appears.
Rudd's move against the NSW branch was one of his first acts upon resuming the federal Labor leadership. This move was decisive, positive and long overdue. But if Labor is genuinely serious about taking on corruption, the clean-out needs to go beyond a 30-day intervention; it needs to be systemic, forensic and sustained. One suspects Rudd has the stomach for it – but it won't win him friends.
Labor federally has been far too slow to act on these problems, apparently preferring not to know. Julia Gillard's decision to leave Sydney to its own devices reflected her own weakness in the prime ministership after the 2010 election. It was a failure of political judgment, and of principled leadership. It's been a costly mistake for the party, which now has to deal with a tarnished brand and an alienated membership.
Quite separately from the leaching Icac material, federal Labor had a harbinger of cultural problems in NSW since at least 2009, when the allegations against the federal MP Craig Thomson were made public.
Today's Icac report is just the start in a long clean-up process.
The impact of all this for Labor federally remains to be seen over the coming weeks. Labor has been extremely concerned about the impact of this murk on marginal seat campaigns in NSW. Much of the policy repositioning we've seen in recent weeks – the tough move on boats, axing the carbon "tax", Rudd's move on party reform – are direct appeals to the bruised sensibilities of NSW voters.
Federal Labor is hoping voters will make a clear distinction between what happened in Sydney and the pivot under way in Canberra. All the major NSW players in federal parliament are rushing to distance themselves from their "brothers" in Sydney. And Labor is pouring resources and time into Queensland in the hope that a positive swing there can neutralise losses in NSW.
Of course the Coalition doesn't intend to let Labor duck and weave out of all of this. Over the last few days various shadow ministers have drawn the links back from Canberra to Sydney, to imply taint by association.
The fallout from the Icac findings is uncertain, but one thing is clear. It will be an ugly old ground game in NSW.
